Hoping for holiday crowds

If you’ve got the bucks to spend this year, you’re going to love the holiday shopping season because there will be plenty of sales.

Chances are, though, it’ll be a miserable time for most, especially the retailers.

That’s what the experts are forecasting as the world navigates the choppy waters of an economic downturn, and shoppers and business owners gird for Black Friday, traditionally one of the year’s busiest shopping days. They call it Black Friday because it’s the day retailers expect the red ink to start turning black.

“It’s going to be an interesting Black Friday because the stores are already pushing discounts for the holiday season,” said Jack Kyser, senior vice president and chief economist for the L.A. County Economic Development Corp. Usually store owners wait until the shopping season ends to cut prices.

As usual, the shoppers will probably line up before dawn to get first crack at the deeper sales, Kyser said. “But the question is after Black Friday — will they keep coming back to the mall?”

About the only retailer expected to come out ahead this season is discount department store Wal-Mart.

South Coast Plaza is expecting large crowds despite the tough economy, the center’s spokeswoman, Debra Gunn Downing, said.

“We’re cautiously optimistic,” she said. “While acknowledging it is a difficult retail environment right now, there is every indication that customers are still going to do their holiday shopping this year.”

Still, she said, shoppers would be driven by the search for deals this year.

“Certainly business will be driven by customer response to discounting at stores,” she said. “There’s a lot of promotional activity out there. It’s really a buyer’s market.”

South Coast Plaza and Fashion Island will weather the storm better than most because the malls attract a wealthier clientele and feature niche stores, Kyser said.

“A lot of the smaller and less glitzy malls will struggle,” he added.

And “aspirational luxury stores” like Coach could “have a tough go of it,” because they cater to shoppers who can’t afford high-end products like Louis Vuitton, Kyser said.