On the Democrat side, which has become a three-way tie in Iowa within the margin of error, according to the average of all polls followed by RealClearPolitics.com, a Hillary Clinton victory would help push back Barack Obama’s surge and could end the John Edwards campaign unless he gets second place. An Obama win bloodies Clinton’s nose but doesn’t cause any real damage unless he wins five days later in New Hampshire.
An Edwards win could change everything. After seven years out in the desert, the Democrats want the White House back and will pick whichever candidate they think can take it back in November. If anything, they are pragmatic.
With Clinton’s very high negatives among many general election voters and Obama’s lack of any real experience, Edwards may get the nod as the only top tier candidate who is smart enough and likable enough to win the White House in November.
First, a full disclosure before we talk about the Republican side. I drank the Kool-Aid for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney more than a year ago after meeting all the top candidates except Fred Thompson. Thompson wasn’t a candidate then and, even with the hard work and help of some of my close friends, is not much of a candidate now. I have given and raised money for Romney and I am completely biased.
On the Republican side you have former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rocketing to the lead from nowhere to pass Romney by five points in Iowa.
A win by Huckabee would propel his candidacy past his certain-loss in New Hampshire where his southern charm does not wear well. Then into Michigan, where Huckabee is already neck and neck with Romney and on to the Bible-Belt South Carolina, where he is expected to win.
