O.C. lags in job growth

NEWPORT BEACH — Orange County had the lowest job growth this year of any major urban area in California and may soon be mired in a nationwide recession, a group of business leaders said Tuesday at a forum at the Island Hotel.

At a five-hour conference presented by UCI’s Paul Merage School of Business, members of the real estate, construction and home-building industries called the economic forecast gloomy, although they noted a few signs of hope as well. Speakers throughout the event, which the Merage School held for the first time Tuesday, repeatedly used the word “recession” to describe the market’s future — or current — state.

“To be blunt, we’re on recession watch,” said Jack Kyser, the chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation and the conference’s keynote speaker.

As of October, Orange County had added only 400 jobs to its total from last year, putting it far behind the pace of Los Angeles, San Diego and other areas around the state, Kyser said. The county also posted increasing numbers of unsold houses, unrented apartments and vacant offices, he said.

The conference, which about 200 attended, followed a sluggish year in the national economy and a rough period for the housing market. Kerry Vandell, the director of the Merage School’s Center for Real Estate, hosted the forum and said UCI hoped to make it an annual event.

As debuts go, it wasn’t always a positive one. Jay Moss, the chief executive of Mosaic Homes, compared the state of the economy to the Titanic submerged halfway in the Atlantic. Mary Ann Jones, the senior director for CIT Commercial Real Estate, said fewer small business owners were taking out building loans due to the market’s instability.

Some of the speakers pointed out positive developments. Orange County’s tourism and technology industries continued to thrive and the Department of Defense contracts had gone up in recent years, Kyser said. David Rowan, chief of the state’s Division of Apprenticeship Standards, said California had nearly one-third of the nation’s construction apprentices, ensuring a healthy workforce in the future.

Even the more pessimistic speakers said they expected the economy to work through its troubles eventually.

“California is going through a real estate recession, if you will, but it will recover,” said Frank Foster, the chief executive of Fieldstone Homes. “It has in the past, and it will in the future.”

MICHAEL MILLER may be reached at (714) 966-4617 or at michael.miller@latimes.com.