Fewer people to move to O.C. area

COSTA MESA — Orange County should see a drop in new residents over the next few years due to a slow-growing economy, according to Chapman University researchers who hosted an annual economic forecast conference on Tuesday.

Esmael Adibi, the director of Chapman's Anderson Center for Economic Research, said during a breakfast presentation at the Westin South Coast Plaza that the county's housing and manufacturing markets would likely fall off this year while education, health care and other businesses enjoyed a boom. The numbers, he said, were part of a greater trend of exports replacing housing and construction as a major Orange County industry.

After the conference, fellow researcher James Doti said the economic shifts would probably lead to fewer people moving to Orange County, but added the change was probably temporary.

"Orange County is going to be a strong economy no matter what, but there will be fewer people moving in because of high housing prices and unaffordability," said Doti, the president and Donald Bren Distinguished Chair of Business and Economics at Chapman. "But we hope in the coming years, that will subside because of the natural amenities this county offers."

Those amenities, Doti said, included the county's landscape, its educational system and its bustling arts scene. Also, he said, the increased reliance on exports would turn the area into a trading hub.

"Global trade will be greatest with Asia, Southeast Asia and the trading port for much of that will be Southern California," he said.

During the conference, which more than 100 business leaders attended, Doti and Adibi narrated a slide show on the county, state and national forecasts for 2007 and 2008.

Adibi, who provided the county numbers, said the county's payroll job growth had been slightly higher than the state's and nation's last year. Orange County's growth, he said, also outpaced Los Angeles, San Diego and Santa Barbara counties.

A problem for the county, according to Doti and Adibi, was the housing market, which was slowing due to high mortgage rates and a decrease in the population — between the ages of 25 and 49 — that usually bought homes. Adibi said the average Orange County family paid 49.8% of its gross income on mortgage payments last year, a record amount.