If you live in Newport Beach and plan to visit the polls today, don't
expect a line -- more than half the people likely to cast ballots may
already have done so.
Today is the special primary election to fill the 48th
Congressional District seat, which former Rep. Chris Cox left two
months ago when he became chairman of the Securities and Exchange
Commission. The 48th District includes Newport Beach, Irvine, Laguna
Beach and all or part of nine other coastal and southern Orange
County cities.
The ballot lists 17 candidates representing five parties; two
write-ins -- Republicans Steven W. Blake and Delecia Holt -- also
have qualified as candidates.
If no one candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, each party's
winning candidate will appear on a Dec. 6 general election ballot.
Political observers predicted less than 20% of the district's
402,006 registered voters would cast ballots in today's election --
and that's including nearly 50,000 people who have already voted.
A 20% turnout would be about 80,400 voters, so the 49,462 people
who sent in absentee ballots or voted early would be 61.5% of the
total number of voters expected.
Turnout is usually low in special elections -- Newport Beach
political consultant David Ellis pegged it between 15% and 18%, and UC Irvine political scientist Louis DeSipio thought it could go as
high as 20%.
With so many people voting before election day, state Sen. John
Campbell and former Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer -- considered the
GOP front runners -- "are going to have a leg up because only
recently did Jim Gilchrist have the chance to put anything out in the
mail," political pollster Adam Probolsky said. Gilchrist, running on
the American Independent Party ticket, has sought support from
conservatives regardless of party.
But a number of candidates still spent the weekend as well as
Monday encouraging people to hit the polls.
"We've got people all over the district right now," Campbell
campaign manager Jim Terry said Monday. "We're knocking on doors and
passing out literature."
Campbell even had a fundraiser set for Monday afternoon, because
even though he'd like to avoid a general election by winning outright
today, he's not counting on it.
It's not clear what the last-minute efforts will yield in the way
of votes, however.
"I don't know that that really turns people out ... that wouldn't
turn out anyway," DeSipio said.
But, he added, "In a race like this where a few votes could make a
difference, it's worth doing."
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. today. For information on the
election and polling places, visit o7www.ocvote.com f7or call the
Orange County Registrar of Voters at (714)567-7600.
* ALICIA ROBINSON covers government and politics. She may be
reached at (714) 966-4626 or by e-mail at
o7alicia.robinson@latimes.comf7.
