Dan Emory and Michael Gueleck
The problem: The letters in the Daily Pilot Forum section (March 25)
attest that the airport debate is not over. All sides have valid
points.
The drama of the airport, in three acts:
Act 1: Our community wanted some restrictions on flights in and
out of John Wayne Airport. We succeeded.
Act 2: We made an attempt to get an airport at El Toro. We failed.
Act 3: In the future, the powers that be will most likely decide
that the only solution is to enlarge JWA. We must be ready ahead of
time so as not to fail this time.
The facts of flight:
1. The most recent Southern California Association of Governments
(SCAG) study of future air traffic demand estimates that annual air
traffic demand will increase from 81 million air passengers in 1997
to 167 million air passengers 2022. The association, based on the
existing capacity of regional airports (including planned expansions
such as that at LAX), estimates that airport capacity will fall 28%
-- or 47 millions of air passengers -- short of demand. Add the
rapidly increasing demand for air freight, and it becomes apparent
the actual shortfall between capacity and demand will commence around
the year 2015, if not sooner.
2. Creating a new major commercial airport facility, major
expansion of an existing facility, or, in the case of El Toro,
conversion to a commercial airport, typically takes about 10 years
from the inception of planning to the beginning of construction. And
the construction phase itself can take up to 5 years. The year 2015
is just 11 years away. Thus, it is already a certainty that all the
regional airports will be at or above capacity before it is possible
to bring any additional capacity on-line.
3. Providing a true high-speed mass transit system to connect all
the existing airports to most regional population centers, even if
possible, does not solve the capacity shortfall problem. Furthermore,
such systems take even longer to construct than airports. The current
budgetary crunch in California makes the likelihood of any high-speed
mass transit problematic at best. Even if a project were begun, the
much greater political clout of Los Angeles County would make
connections of the system to Orange County a low priority, not likely
to occur in less than 25 years.
4. The regional freeway system is already at or above capacity.
Traveling by freeway from Orange County to a distant airport will
become increasingly onerous, particularly during peak hours when most
